From the National Association of Realtors (NAR), you can see if your market is heading toward a housing shortage or surplus by asking, “are we building enough new houses?”

How do they know? Well, the assumption is that if you know how many new jobs are coming to a market, you can extrapolate how many homes people will be wanting to buy. So, by comparing new jobs created with new home permits that have been granted, you get an idea of new housing vs. new residents. 

It’s a rough comparison, but with some correlation. According to the NAR, the general rule of thumb for enough new construction is one new construction permit for every two new jobs in that market. 

In the map below, red indicates a short supply, and blue is sufficient.